North Carolina Central

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	279.0
Current RPI:	279
Expected SOS:	350
Current SOS:	350
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-10
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	289
Expected OOC SOS:	287

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	279.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	65-55	L	0%
11-13	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	68-55	L	0%
11-15	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	74-57	L	0%
11-19	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	80-67	W	100%
11-22	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	92-84	L	0%
11-24	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	86-73	L	0%
11-26	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	70-77	W	100%
12-2	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	77-86	L	0%
12-9	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	77-65	L	0%
12-11	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	64-59	L	0%
12-14	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	77-71	W	100%
1-3	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	A	62-65	W	100%
1-8	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	64-63	W	100%
1-13	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	81-61	W	100%
1-15	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	77-63	W	100%
1-20	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	A	84-78	L	0%
1-22	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	A	60-63	W	100%
1-27	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	A	70-64	L	0%
2-3	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	72-61	W	100%
2-5	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	70-86	L	0%
2-10	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	A	65-56	L	0%
2-12	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	A	99-81	L	0%
2-17	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	77-49	W	100%
2-19	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	83-66	W	100%
2-24	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	A	102-79	L	0%
2-26	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	A	85-75	L	0%
3-1	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	70-59	W	100%
3-6	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	N	60-48	W	100%
3-8	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	N	56-58	W	100%
3-9	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	N	79-70	W	100%
3-10	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	N	63-71	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Carolina Central	MEAC	26.30	26.30	56.20	56.20	3.26	3.26
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3.99	3.99	56.67	56.67	0.53	0.53
Morgan St.	MEAC	3.98	3.98	39.29	39.29	-0.85	-0.85
Hampton	MEAC	3.93	3.93	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Delaware St.	MEAC	3.90	3.90	7.14	7.14	-3.35	-3.35
Coppin St.	MEAC	3.86	3.86	16.67	16.67	-2.57	-2.57
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.86	3.86	42.86	42.86	-0.55	-0.55
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	3.85	3.85	17.86	17.86	-2.48	-2.48
Howard	MEAC	3.85	3.85	24.14	24.14	-1.99	-1.99
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	3.31	3.31	40.74	40.74	-0.61	-0.61
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.46	2.46	21.88	21.88	-1.38	-1.38
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.40	2.40	44.83	44.83	-0.25	-0.25
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.35	2.35	24.14	24.14	-1.21	-1.21
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.32	2.32	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.80	1.80	25.00	25.00	-0.90	-0.90
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.74	1.74	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Illinois	B10	1.72	1.72	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Southern	SWAC	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Marshall	CUSA	1.69	1.69	68.75	68.75	0.63	0.63
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	A10	1.67	1.67	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.21	0.21	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
Murray St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	82.76	82.76	0.13	0.13
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.10	-0.10
South Florida	Amer	0.13	0.13	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Penn	Ivy	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01